Diners are happy to pay higher bills at their favorite restaurants. But for many, the risk of eating somewhere new is no longer worth the cost.
The cost of dining out in the US has surged since 2020, with menu prices continually rising even as other forms of inflation stabilize. In 2023, restaurant inflation outpaced grocery inflation, leading to a situation where Americans were spending more on dining out but going out less frequently. While initially driven by a desire for pandemic revenge, as the year progressed, economic pressures tightened belts and dampened the dining experience.
In numerous conversations with restaurant patrons nationwide, many expressed that price hikes hadn’t diminished their loyalty to their favorite eateries. Supporting local establishments, especially small businesses, now feels like a civic duty for many. However, diners have become more cautious, less willing to take chances on untested restaurants, and more inclined to seek out deals. They’re only willing to splurge when confident the dining experience will be exceptional, with hype viewed skeptically. Consequently, securing reservations at popular spots has become increasingly challenging, as disappointment is a luxury few are willing to afford.
“The height of the 2010s Michelin stars, the phase when everyone was trying to hit buzzy new restaurants—that sort of has faded out.”
Vanessa Carbajal, a Los Angeles resident who has worked both in content creation and the restaurant industry, remarked, “The dining experience isn’t as enjoyable or carefree as it once was. Now, there’s a sense of being hurried. The atmosphere feels different—it’s all about getting in and getting out, and nobody seems to be truly having a great time.”
The reservations expressed by diners appear to be primarily aimed at mid-level restaurants, those situated between fast-casual eateries and fine dining establishments, particularly those heavily promoted on social media platforms. Many patrons described feelings of frustration and dissatisfaction when their evenings out resulted in hefty bills and underwhelming experiences. Whether it was a mediocre cocktail, food that didn’t surpass home-cooked standards, or a patio that didn’t live up to its social media hype, disappointment seemed to prevail.
Alyssa Tao, a tech worker residing in Jersey City, shared her perspective: “When it comes to choosing restaurants, I tend to avoid those that prioritize social media appeal or hype.” In Tao’s social circle, there’s been a noticeable shift towards meeting up at coffee shops or enjoying home-cooked meals together. She noted the decline of the 2010s trend where everyone sought out buzzy new restaurants in pursuit of Michelin-starred experiences.
“I have to say some really buzzy places that have received raves for food and atmosphere have disappointed me.”
Karen Tongson, who serves as the chair of Gender and Sexuality Studies at the University of Southern California, identifies as a committed patron of restaurants. However, she has become increasingly cautious when trying out new establishments. A recent dining experience in Silverlake left her underwhelmed, as the pork chops she and her companions ordered were mediocre and insufficient in portion size even for a shared small plate. Tongson reflects, “I must admit that some highly acclaimed eateries, lauded for their cuisine and ambiance, have left me feeling let down.”
According to Lex Washington, a professor and mother of three residing in Stillwater, Oklahoma, the experience at chain restaurants has taken a downturn. She and her daughter traditionally mark their birthdays at Texas Roadhouse, enjoying activities like mechanical bull riding and complimentary treats such as ice cream and cake. However, she notes a decline in these offerings: “Nowadays, there’s no bull, no cake, and the generous portion of ice cream has been reduced to a mere scoop, accompanied by a dollop of whipped cream.” She expresses reluctance to continue patronizing these establishments if prices continue to rise, especially considering their widespread presence across the United States.
The surge in prices can be attributed to various factors. Rising ingredient costs and increased wages, which many restaurants raised to attract staff following pandemic-related closures, are contributing factors. Additionally, stringent regulations, along with exorbitantly high commercial rents, further squeeze profit margins. Despite understanding the need for price adjustments to sustain the business model, many restaurant enthusiasts are choosing to spend their money at establishments they trust and believe in.
“You know [the owner’s] name, and our kids go to school together,” she says. “I’m extra willing to go and spend my money there and really want them to survive.”
Washington expresses a preference for dining at local establishments in her small town rather than making the trek to larger cities like Dallas or Tulsa for a meal. She emphasizes the familiarity of knowing the restaurant owners personally and having children who attend school together. This personal connection motivates her to support these businesses, hoping for their survival amid challenges. Meanwhile, others have adjusted their dining habits by seeking out restaurants offering deals. Jen Zhang, who manages a food recommendations TikTok account, notes that her videos featuring all-you-can-eat restaurants garner the most attention. She explains, “Some of the most popular videos on my page are about buffets and all-you-can-eat options because people perceive value in them.”
Furthermore, several individuals mentioned their willingness to indulge in a specific type of dining experience: omakase. Justin Kim, a Seattle resident with prior experience working in restaurant kitchens and now employed as a data analyst, remarks on the escalating costs of day-to-day dining, which he finds often subpar. However, he doesn’t hesitate to spend $150 to $200 on omakase, noting its reputation for simplicity and perfectionism, which instills trust in its quality without comparison to home-cooked meals. Chanda Mau, who recently transitioned from the corporate world to focus on her pop-up events in Austin, TX, discusses her reduced frequency of visits to her favorite sushi restaurant, Tsuke Edomae, opting instead to allocate her dining budget to fewer, albeit more exceptional, experiences. She states, “I’m very conscious of where my money goes.”
Interestingly, the impact of price hikes may differ between higher-end and everyday restaurants. Higher-end establishments may be less affected, as customers anticipate spending more and are less surprised by increased prices. Sam Weidert, who served as a server in a high-end steakhouse in Minneapolis, notes that despite price increases, customers seldom voiced complaints about the bill. He explains, “It’s either wealthy individuals or those celebrating special occasions who frequent these establishments. Both groups are prepared to spend money, and in some cases, spending money even feels rewarding.”
“I’m very aware of my money and where I’m going with it.”
As individuals grapple with rising restaurant prices by seeking only flawless dining experiences, avoiding smaller disappointments contributes to a broader sense of disillusionment. The essence of dining out is under threat, and those with a passion for food feel the impact acutely. Laura Dux, a student and part-time server in Los Angeles, expresses dismay: “It’s disheartening to constantly come across articles highlighting all the trendy spots in LA right now. I’m eager to stay in the loop with the culinary scene.” However, she finds herself limited to enjoying upscale meals at her workplace, where she benefits from a 35% discount. She laments, “It seems like we’ve reached a point where unless I’m employed there, I may never have the chance to try these places.”
There’s a possibility that dining costs may not escalate further. Ryan Sutton, a restaurant critic who authors the newsletter the LO Times, suggests that restaurant prices might have plateaued, particularly in New York. Having monitored price hikes at restaurants, particularly high-end ones, since 2011, Sutton notes instances where tasting menus have reduced prices for lunch or even dinner. He explains, “A price cut often indicates an overshoot in pricing, prompting establishments to attract more patrons.”
Nonetheless, affordability might not improve significantly. Sutton anticipates that many of the recent increases are here to stay, rendering some restaurants permanently inaccessible to the majority. He remarks, “While no one will lose their home due to the cost of a steak dinner, it does mean that an average food enthusiast who saves up may find themselves unable to dine at certain establishments altogether, altering the landscape of dining culture. It’s disappointing.”
